With the NZ election behind us and certainty of which party will maintain the lead in government, we move into a busy Christmas period. The wage subsidy is beginning to fall off. From September we are starting to see businesses having to stand on their own two feet once again.
From an industry standpoint of the economy what are we expecting to see for businesses over this time and into 2021?
As we all know the NZ government has injected massive amounts of cash into the NZ economy in a reasonable short time frame propping up a number of industries and supporting our job market. Because of this, unemployment figures continue to stay subdued with September quarter figures set at 5.3%. A large chunk of the unemployment is coming from a select few sectors that were heavily affected by the border closures and lockdowns (tourism, hospitality, accommodation, retail, entertainment).
One of the benefits of the lockdown has been that it has allowed households to save some funds over this time that has led to a bump in spending from these savings and funds normally used for overseas travel. This spending has been focused around big ticket items for around the house and domestic travel. Unfortunately, this type of spending is something that happens every few years as the big-ticket items typically last a number of years so while there will be an initial bump with the saving, it is not something that can realistically continue year on year.
From the business perspective, the low interest rates currently on offer from the banks have made access to funds easier along with the mortgage deferral scheme for those operators in need. The lower interest rates have also led to a bumper housing market across a number of regions that has a positive affect on the economy as homeowners feel equity rich. It is expected that the interest rates will remain low for the next few years to come.
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Graphs
Corporate Insolvencies
Corporate insolvencies remain lower than 2019 & 2018 levels, with a drop in appointments in the lead up to the election which is typical.
Total Insolvencies
Out of interest we ran the total insolvencies from the 2017 election vs the 2020 election, it seems hard to believe that from an economic standpoint there have been less insolvencies in 2020 than there were in 2017. Is the 2020 economy in a better position than the 2017 economy? Probably not, so the obvious answer is that the government assistance provided to date continues to prop up a number of businesses and individuals.
Corporate Winding Up Applications
September and October saw a lift in the number of creditors initiating winding up proceedings against debtors. Of the 199 advertised in 2020, 113 have ended up with liquidators or receivers being appointed. You will note that in August, September and October there were no winding up applications advertised by the IRD which is common in the lead up to an election, along with the increased leniency they have shown as the result of Covid-19. We expect to see that backlog get remedied in the coming months.
Personal Insolvencies
The September drop off remains at odds with the projections generated by MBIE and discussed in our last article as personal insolvency figures across the board drop off. We expect to get the October figures mid-month.
McDonald Vague have a team of licenced insolvency practitioners with experience across corporate insolvencies and assisting individuals with alternative options to bankruptcy. We can assist with company compromises, liquidations, voluntary administration, and personal proposals.